Water Shortage Update

Reclamation declares the coming year's shortage condition each August from its projection of Lake Mead's elevation on January 1. Calendar 2026 is the last year under the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan, which put Lake Mead in a Tier 1 shortage. From January 1, 2027 the 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines apply, issued under the Record of Decision Interior signed on August 21, 2026 for a ten-year decision framework that runs through 2036 in two-year steps.

2027: the first year under the new rules

• Lake Mead: the August 2026 24-Month Study places Mead in a shortage condition for 2027. Lower Basin deliveries are cut by a fixed 1.25 million acre-feet a year: Arizona 760,000, California 440,000, Nevada 50,000. The three states have also pledged at least 700,000 acre-feet of voluntary conservation through 2028.
• Lake Powell: operated to a 3,510-foot minimum target in the Lower Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range, with a water-year 2027 release of 6.0 to 7.0 million acre-feet to be finalized in April 2027. Drought-response releases from Flaming Gorge continue to April 2027.
• Upper Basin: no mandatory cuts; Flaming Gorge, the Aspinall Unit (Blue Mesa, Morrow Point) and Navajo are operated to protect Glen Canyon Dam.
• Mexico: deliveries are handled in a separate binational process under the 1944 treaty.

The 2007 tiers, for reference (Lake Mead elevation, January 1 projection)

• Tier 1 (below 1,075 ft): Arizona 512,000 acre-feet, Nevada 21,000, Mexico 80,000 a year. In force for 2022 through 2026.
• Tier 2 (below 1,050 ft): Arizona 592,000, Nevada 25,000, Mexico 104,000. Declared once, for 2023.
• Tier 3 (below 1,025 ft): Arizona 720,000, Nevada 30,000, Mexico 150,000. Never reached.

Cuts fall first on junior agricultural users, chiefly in central Arizona, where the Central Arizona Project faces roughly a 50 percent reduction in 2027. Nevada sued Interior over the new framework on August 24, 2026; Arizona has reserved funds for litigation. Live Lake Mead elevation is on Reclamation's Lower Colorado hourly data page.